Updated predictions

I know, I'm cheating. You can call them power rankings if it makes you feel better, but here are my latest predictions for the final standings.

The East.

1. Pistons
2. Celtics
3. Magic
4. Raptors
5. Cavaliers
6. Wizards
7. Pacers
8. Bulls
9. Hawks
10. Heat
11. Hawks
12. Bucks
13. Sixers
14. Bobcats
15. Knicks

The West.

1. Spurs
2. Phoenix
3. Jazz
4. Hornets
5. Warriors
6. Mavericks
7. Nuggets
8. Lakers
9. Rockets
10. Portland
11. Kings
12. Grizzlies
13. Clippers
14. Sonics
15. Wolves

ASU's first loss

Maybe I'm just pissed off or maybe I'm just drunk, but that Rudy Carpenter is a bum. I don't think ASU's reliance on the run game is a choice. Statistically he looks ok, but it's only because he receivers make him look good. At least half of his completions are thrown too high. He also takes way too long to throw the damn ball. It's not the O-lines fault that there have been so many sacks this year. I'm not real impressed with the offensive play calling either, but it's pretty obvious where the weak link is.

Ok, I feel better... still not real happy, but better.

Predicted final standing

Just to see how wrong I can be, here are some predictions for the final regular season standings and playoffs.

East:

1. Chicago
2. Detroit
3. Orlando
4. Toronto
5. New Jersey
6. Boston
7. Miami
8. Milwaukee
9. Indiana
10. Cleveland
11. Philadelphia
12. Washington
13. New York
14. Atlanta
15. Charlotte

First round: Toronto over New Jersey, Chicago over Milwaukee, Boston over Orlando, Miami over Detroit.
Second round: Chicago over Toronto, Boston over Miami
Conference Finals: Chicago over Boston

Western conference

1. Phoenix
2. Dallas
3. Utah
4. San Antonio
5. Houston
6. Denver
7. New Orleans
8. Golden State
9. LA Clippers
10. Memphis
11. Portland
12. LA Lakers
13. Seattle
14. Sacramento
15. Minnesota

First round: Phoenix over Golden State, Dallas over New Orleans, Utah over Denver, San Antonio over Houston
Second round: Phoenix over San Antonio, Utah over Dallas
Conference finals: Utah over Phoenix

NBA champions: Utah over Chicago in 6.

Everyone else is doing it: 12 fearless predictions about the season

12 things that may or may not happen during the course of the season:

1. Utah Jazz will win the champions - these guys are better than people are giving them credit for, Boozer is a monster and the supporting cast is very good. Ak-47 is the x-factor, if his fragile ego holds up this team will be tough to beat.

2. The Sun will have the best record - Their up-tempo style and skill will win a lot of regular season games, but they will not be able to translate it into playoff success, yet again.

3. Chicago will win the east - They have the most talented roster and one of the best defensive systems in the conference. That will be good enough for a number one seed and eastern conference championship. Unless they trade for Kobe, in which case they're fucked.

4. The MVP will go to KG - The Celtics are going to be a lot better this year and KG will get all the credit. Every sports writer is the country has a giant man crush on this guy.

5. Andrea Bargnani will have a lot less doubters by the end of the year - he's got the natural skills, the aggressive and the willingness to learn to take huge strides in his development.

6. Raptors will win the same number of games as last year - well give or take two. They have gotten better, but so has the rest of the conference.

7. Raptors will make the playoffs as a fourth or fifth seed and lose in the second round - This will make everyone fairly happy.

8. Baston, Moon and Martin will spend most of their time on the inactive list

9. Chris Bosh's body will hold up - everyone is getting way too excited about his potential health problems, he will play more than 70 games this year.

10. Washington won't make the playoffs - Agent Zero's knee won't be 100% for a good chunk of the season and the rest of the team is not good enough to take up the slack. Especially since they still won't play defense.

11. Boston will make the playoffs - But they won't be higher than fifth seed.

12. New Jersey will win the Atlantic division - I don't like it either, but they have Jason Kidd and a good supporting cast. They would have won it last year too, if they hadn't been hit so hard by the injury bug.

Another Preseason Victory, But Still More Questions

Well, if you missed it the Raptors crushed the Wizards tonight, it's really too bad its only the preseason. They do look good though, let's just hope they keep it up when the games count.

The consensus seems to be that the odd man out of the Raptors lineup will be Jamario Moon, Luke Jackson or Juan Dixon. It's not a decision I would like to make, I honestly like each of these guys and think that they can contribute to the Raptors success. If I had to guess I would say that Jackson is the most likely cut, He's much cheaper to get rid of then Dixon and Moon has been playing very well. But who knows, coach Mitchell has said that the cut would be based more on what he sees in practice, then what has happened in the preseason games.

If we're really lucky Bryan Colangelo will find a team in desperate need of some bench scoring (Miami, maybe. Though, they did just trade for Ricky Buckets) and ship Dixon off for some future draft picks.

On Another note, the season is just not starting soon enough, the waiting is killing me.

Tricky cuts

Someone on the current Raptors squad isn't going to make it to the regular season. Its sad, but its the rules. Before training camp began I was sure that the cutee(I don't think that's a word, but it works for me) would be one of, Jamario Moon, Luke Jackson or Derrick Martin, with Juan Dixon being a long shot. After these last few preseason games, I have to admit that I have no idea.

Juan Dixon has been shooting very well coming off the bench, which is exactly what he's supposed to do. So I'm pretty such he's a lock to make the team

Luke Jackson and Jamario Moon are both fairly young players with the potential to be quality role players for Toronto for a long time... And neither of them are likely to cost much. That leaves Derrick Martin.

While he certainly isn't going to get any better and right now he's little more than a tutor for Toronto's young PG tandem, I don't think they want to get rid of him either. His mentoring has been very valuable to both Ford and Calderon and is a big reason why they both improved dramatically last year. While the Raptors could instead try to keep Martin on as a coach this year, his relationship with the other two point guard would likely suffer and if either of them get injured Martin can still be a reasonably effective backup PG.

So where does this leave us? To my surprise the player who seems to have performed the most poorly and who really doesn't seem to be getting much burn is Maceo Baston. Really the Raptors don't need him and at his age his is unlikely to be a part of their long term plan. However, I can't see them simply giving up on a guy they just agreed to pay a couple of a million dollars to, without at least giving him some time in the regular season to prove himself. On the other hand, they won't lose much if they do

So who gets cut... Only time will tell, but my money is on Moon or Martin. Mostly because they are the only two in camp without a guaranteed contract.

Thoughts on Raptors preseason

So much for posting more frequently... but I am back again.

The Raptors preseason is half over and we've had a chance to kinda see how the new players are fitting in. Yesterdays game seemed to be a step in the right direction, but they still have a lot of work to do if they're going to repeat as division champs.

Things I like

They finally look like they're learning to rebound. Out-rebounding 47-43 Zalgiris without Bosh in the lineup is a definate positive.

Despite shooting only 20% from three point range they still managed to put up 105 points, a lot of which came from the charity strip. Its good to see that kind of aggresiveness in attacking the basket.

They have gotten back to the team scoring that made them one of the more efficient offenses last year. Six players were in double figures and no one scored more than 13 points.

T.J. Ford seems determined to prove that he can be an all-star and the way he's playing he might be right.

Things I don't like

Bosh is hurt. Why does Toronto always seem to get injury prone stars?

Garbajosa might have come back too early from his injury. He certainly looks like his injury is bothering him. How long until he regains last years form? or did he screw himselft permanently?

Well it's official, Lebron James is not very funny. I caught most of his appearance on SNL last night and wasn't all that surprised that he's not a very good actor. Half the time he was just playing himself and not very convincingly. You know the host isn't very good when he or she gets very small parts and few spoken lines. Hopefully he'll watch a tape of the show and realize that he's better of if he just sticks to BBall and ad that don't require him to act. So he can avoid pulling a Shaq. But enough Lebron bashing, he is certainly an awesome baller and that's more than enough.

Sorry about the long hiatus, assuming someone was reading to begin with, classes and personal life snuck up on me. I am going to give this thing another try, we'll see how that works out.

So, training camp is almost upon us, anyone excited yet? I have never really understood why team would hold their camps overseas, see the Raptors. All that travel, plus the distractions of Europe just don't seem to be a recipe for productive training.

Anyone else worried about the potential injury woes for the Raptors this season. Bosh's foots kinda iffy, as is Garbajosa's ankle. They also had several players in the international competitions this summer, that extra wear and tear could be problematic. At least they have one of the deepest teams in the league this year, which means that they can weather any injuries, even to some key players, and still come out ok.

On a completely seperate note, my Sun Devils are 4-0 and ranked, which means they are due for an upset. We'll see if the new coach can do a better job of keeping them focused than Kotterer(or however you spell his name) used to. At least they seem to have learn how to play defense and that's never a bad thing.

Well, I'm out, night all.

Raptors Season Preview Part 2: The Good, The Bad and The Iffy.

Did I mention that I’m very exciting about the Raptors possibilities this coming season, well I am. This season has the potential to be the best in Raptors history. Expectations are high; anything less then the second round of the playoffs would be seen as a disappointment. With the relative parity of the eastern conference, who knows what the ceiling is… finals maybe? But, before I go proclaiming them Eastern Conference champions, when training camp hasn’t even started yet, we should probably take a look at the factor that will affect their success.

The Good:

Let’s start with their most obvious strength, their depth. The Raptors have multiple quality players at every position, except perhaps center, which gives them several advantages. First, it means that they can weather most injuries without suffering too much of a decline in play, even Chris Bosh could miss a few games and they would survive. This also lets them play an up-tempo game without wearing their players out, which will be really helpful in back-to-back situation, especially late in the season.

Another key strength is the attitude and chemistry of the team. Pretty much every Raptors player has a team-first attitude and they all seem to like each other. This makes it very easy for the coach to make decision on playing time, based solely on who is going to help the team most. Sam Mitchell won’t have to worry about bruising someone’s ego because they didn’t get as much playing time as they thought they should have.

The last major strength is that the Raptors have some very talented young players. Chris Bosh is obviously the star of the team, he is one of the best power forwards in the league and he’s only 23. Last season he finally started to complement his already impressive physical skills with some developing leadership. Behind Bosh, the Raptors boast the best young point guard tandem in the league in T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon. Forward Andrea Bargnani is a 7 footer with legitimate three point, who is well on his way to becoming unguardable.

The bad:

Last season, one of Toronto’s biggest problems was their rebounding. It was a rare game in which they out-rebounded their opponent, many times losing the battle of the boards by ten or more. They really haven’t done anything over the off-season that would suggest any significant improvement in this area, so we can expect more of the same this season.

Aside from Chris Bosh, there are no players on the Raptors that can really be considered elite. This proved to be a problem last year in the playoffs, when they couldn’t really answer the challenge of New Jersey’s Kidd, Carter and Jefferson. This will probably continue to hold the Raptors back until some off their young talent takes the next step. Of course, there is no guarantee that they ever will.

The Raptors really don’t have much at center. I have heard that Bargnani is bulking up this summer, so that he can play the position. If this doesn’t work out the next option in Rasho Nesterovic, who is a decent player, but can’t really keep up with the pace the Raptors like to set. The other options would be to go small and have one of their power forwards play inside, probably either Jorge Garbajosa or Maceo Baston, but neither of them has the size or the post game to really be effective.

The Iffy:

Chris Bosh still has Plantar Fasciitis. If he can’t find a way to beat this nagging injury, it will hurt both his long term development and the team’s chances this year.

There are a lot of players on the roster who should legitimately be expecting significant playing time and there simply aren’t enough minutes to go around. You know Bosh will get the majority of the minutes at the 4 spot, leaving very little for the other 3 power forwards on the roster. The small forward position is similarly crowded, but the minutes will probably be distributed more evenly. It’s really not that bad from the teams point of view, especially if they are hit hard by the injury bug (knock on wood or something), but it will be disappointing for the players who end up riding the pine all season.

Chris Bosh's foot injury

News of Chris Bosh pulling out of the US men's basketball team has me pretty worried. He's had this Plantar Fasciitis for almost a year now and it still seems to be given him some problems. There's nothing worse than a promising career that's derailed by lingering injuries. Let's hope that the Raptors brass have enough sense give him the time he needs to fully recover from this, even if it means starting the season without him. Even though he is clearly the Raptors best player, they have enough depth to survive without him, at least for a little while and his long term health is far too important to the team's success to risk bringing him back before he's ready. Even if it means losing a few more games early in the season.

When will this go away already

Any else tired to this whole ref scandal yet? Call it apathy, call it indifference, call it what you will, but I simply don't care that one NBA ref was a little crooked. I mean, when the story first broke it seemed like the end of the NBA world. The whole thing was going to go up in flames on a pyre built by the unbelievers (anyone not a hardcore NBA fan). A ref had cheated, he had fixed games. Then it became, that Donaghy had manipulated the spread, to make money on gambling. Then it was that he was manipulating the over/under for the same purpose, which is not a big deal to anyone unless they were betting. Finally, unless he faces further charges, it turns out that all he did was give some small-time bookies some insider information. Apparently this is a major crime, since he's looking at 25 years and some hefty fines, but from the perspective of a non-betting NBA fan it's pretty meaningless. Really, who cares that he helped a couple of minor criminals make some money, wasn't the important part of this whole fiasco that he was altering the outcome of certain games, which apparently he wasn't. Can't we just move on and focus on more important issue. Like Chris Bosh's foot injury and how it might affect the chances of the Raptors winning the championship this year (in case you think I'm nuts, I don't actually thing their chances are all that great to begin with, but you never know).

Raptors season preview part 1: Off-season moves.

Just so you know I'm a Raptors fan, so most of my posts will be about them.

With the relative lack of Raptors news over the last couple of month, I’ve had plenty of time to think about the potential of the upcoming season. I’m excited. There are good reasons to believe that they will improve over last season and could easily win a playoff round or two or even three, who knows. In an effort to make the waiting more bearable and to spare my wife from having to listen to me blab on and on about how good I think the Raptors will be, I have instead decided to annoy a larger audience, you. That is, anyone who obsessive or foolish enough to be reading an NBA preview by some nobody, in the middle of August.

This first part will be focusing on the Raptors off-season moves. I realize that pretty much every sports writer and blogger has already covered this ad nauseum, but I guarantee that my analysis will be better thought out and more accurate, or at least slightly different.

The off-season has been pretty quiet for the Raptors. I consider this to be a good thing, mostly because I feel that the they have a good, young, promising core and are really very close to being an elite team. Whether Bryan Colangelo has done enough this year remains to be seen. Let’s start with the losses.

Lost FA Morris Peterson to the Hornets:

As much as I liked and respected Mo Pete, this was probably a good move for both sides. Aside from a couple of games in the playoffs, he never really seemed to understand what the coaching staff was trying to preach. It made no sense for the Raptors to spend their MLE on a player who did not fit in their system, and made even less sense for Mo Pete to sign with a team where he was likely to see limited playing time. Despite his frustrating inconsistency, (I could never understand how he could be so dominant in some games and almost invisible in others) he was still an important part of the Raptors franchise for a long time. I wish him all the best in New Orleans. Grade: B.

Other Free-Agents that are unlikely to return include, Uros Slokar, Pape Sow and Derrick Martin. Of these three only Martin had any impact on last season and that had more to do with his mentoring of the young PGs than anything he did on the court. Not resigning these guys frees up some roster slots for better players. Grade: N/A.

Trade two second-round pick to Pistons for Carlos Delfino:

Bryan Colangelo committed highway robbery here. Delfino is an under-rated player who never really got a chance to play under Flip Saunders in Detroit. Despite limited playing time and being generally neglected in Detroit, Delfino has managed to increase his PER through his short career. With more playing time in Toronto and in system that is a better fit, he is in the perfect situation to have a break-out year. Be ready, this guy will surprise you. Grade: A.

Signed FA Jason Kapono from the Heat:

I’m a little uncertain about this move, while Kapono can most definitely hit open threes, I not sure what else he brings to the table. Kapono is at best an average athlete (by NBA standards), but he does have a good work ethic and high basketball IQ, that should minimize this short-coming. I would probably feel better about this signing if the price had been about 1-1.5 million a year less. On the other hand, Colangelo has proven to be very good talent evaluator, so we will have to wait to see what he sees in Kapono that I don’t. Grade: B.

Signed FA Maceo Baston from the Pacer:

He couldn’t cut it on a floundering Pacer squad and that has me a little worried, but the Raptors brought him in to play a limited role at a cheap price, so it really doesn’t matter much if he doesn’t work out. Best-case scenario, he is an athletic big man who helps the Raptors keep up the fast pace while Bosh and/or Bargnani are out of the game. Worst-case, he pushes and mentors the raptor young forwards in practice. At least he will be quicker than Nesterovic. Grade: B-.

Signed FA Jamario Moon:

This guy is a complete wild card. From what I’ve heard he is crazy-athletic and driven, but still pretty raw. He sounds like an older, less polished Joey Graham, (do the Raptors really need another one??), but for the money that he’s getting, (his contract isn’t even guaranteed) he seems to have enough upside to be worth a serious look. I wouldn’t expect him to be a significant contributor any time soon, or perhaps not at all. Grade: B.

Since the Raptors off-season activity seems to be pretty much done, I’ll give them an overall grade of a A-. Mostly because Colangelo resisted the urge to move any of his valuable young pieces and managed to steal Delfino from the Pistons. Next up, a look at the returning players on the Raptors roster, expect it sometime is the near future. You know, whenever I get around to it.

Sorael, Raptors Fan Extraordinaire.